JamieG Analysis

I was very excited to see the iPad launch.  Not so much for what it is but for what it represents.  It is overwhelmingly underwhelming.  It was the minimum of what we expected and considering Apples track record, disappointing to most people.

I am simply relieved that the “Amazing new ideas” Steve jobs at Apple was going to bring us in the iPad simply did not materialise.  Now we can get on with the job of recreating the way we consume media.  Sure the iPad will be a sucessful part of it.

The real story here is that Apple, with the iPad hype, has persuaded the Media industry to start embracing these types of new media consumption devices.  Content is king, and even if the iPad is the most elegant of devices for consuming this new form of media, without the content producers behind it..  its worthless.

Talking to my fiends in the Media industry, they note that these large media organisations have all done deals with Apple.  But interestingly enough, the key to these deals is the “Non-exclusivity” aspects of them.  Meaning, if any other [A-Z]Pad devices come out in the near future, those devices will have access to the content just as much as Apple does.

Look at the killer aspect of the “PADS” , we have the immenent demise of news papers and magazines. The “PAD” device will be a must have.  And that’s the deal with the iPad.  It is suppose to be the bridge between the old and the new.

My point here is that the iPad may be the first bridge we build between the old and the new, but it will only be the prototype.  The bridge we get the best bridge makers in the world to build first.  Then we get the companies who make 80% as good for 50% the cost and that goes mass market.

What I am waiting for is the disposiblePAD. $100-$150, does all what iPad does, but a little slower, App store may be not so good.  But really, it supplies the killer aspect of the device.  And it is cheap enough to drop it once a year and not think twice about replacing it.  Apple’s culture simply cannot compete with this type of device.  Apple will be very sucessful just as BMW and Mercades are very sucessful.  However, Apple is not a everybody device.

I think the blogisphere underestimates this issue. Price is everything in that market. Due to the way we will use he PAD, I can see it getting broken and lost very readily.  No one can afford to do this with a $500, cheapest iPad device (And I expect Apple to drop the price much more after the Apple Fan boys have purchased).  I expect a $150 for a nice equivalent, then add subsidized subscriptions to a few content providers, and we are talking equivalent to free device.

I am just happy the Apple hype is over.  There was nothing we didn’t already know.  We can all get on with what we where doing.  Apple hasn’t changed anything.  All they did was confirm what everyone was thinking but had not invested in as yet due to waiting on the Apple magic that did not appear.

The iTablet hype is reaching ear-bleeding level.  The speculation goes from one extreme to the other.  Personally I am getting tired of it, so in this blog post, lets go over the obvious moves Apple will make when it is finally released.

1. The hardware spec and prototype was most likely finished quite some time ago.  Obviously they have been refining it continuously as time permits.  However, it is not the hardware that dictates the iTable release.

2. Anyone pushing the “iTable is only rumor etc” is obviously just trying to generate clicks. (Total opposite to general opinion generates traffic) I don’t even look for these leaks but I have heard that it certainly exists.

3. The iTablet success is connected to content.  Apple will not release the iTablet until they have the content in place.  It is far more important then the product itself.  Why buy a TV if you have nothing to feed it, ie Movies/TV shows.  Remember the old days, the Radio makers MADE the Radio shows to drive demand.

4. Apple needs to get the formula right.  The iTablet success is based around replacing the hole left behind by news papers going away and everything going online.  This is all well and good, but the old timers, the general MASS MARKET, (As opposed to the very small and limited tech hype engine that is western US) will only adopt the product in mass if it is seen as a replacement for what they know and love now.  Ie picking up the news paper in the morning and reading it while you eat breakfast.  This is a key issue that combines the functionality of the iTablet and the media deals.  For the iTablet to be as successful as everyone is hoping it will be, it need to exist in its own right.  Not an iPhone replacement, not a Ultra light PC/MacPro replacement.  A product in that “it” is the best product for the purpose.

5. The magic  you get when this product come along, interactive magazines, video communication, (Twitter, facebook integration etc) is what  makes this product worth all the hype. It is what the excitement is really about. All that BLUE SKY..  the potential.

The more interesting aspect of all this is the wave of change in the printing industry this will bring.  Unlike Music in which Apple found itself in a very dominant position and sacrificed the artist for its dominance in portable music players, no other industry has been willing to let Apple do this again.  The AppleTV, for example, is been a failed project as the media providers are not willing to let Apple gain a postion of dominance.  They are making sure other companies and paths to market exist. As Apple has not seen a path to dominance, they have not spent much time on AppleTV.

So, how is Apple doing these deals with Print Media is the bigger question.  From what I hear, Apple are doing very reasonable deals.  I expect they understand they cannot get away with what they did with music.  Print media suppliers are not going to back themselves into corners like the Music industry did.  They are likely to make open ended deals in that other hardware makers will easily join in on. (For example, at half the cost of an iTablet) This means Apple is not as likely to be able to dominate the market with the iTablet.

However, I think Apple masterful plan as to use the “accidental” success of the App store with its lock in APPS (Ie not cross platform, only run on Apple) as a form of obtaining dominance.  Apple will be open with its media suppliers, but will lock in the users by locking them to APPLE only applications.

The iTablet will obviously have a App Store, and countless Apps will appear over night.  Users will find themselves investing another few hundread dollars in Apps before they know it.  If your iTablet breaks, or the battery dies (And most likely cannot be replaced) what are you going to buy, a new white box Tablet at 1/2 the cost and loose access to your APPS, or just get another iTablet?

This explains why the open and cross platform technology from Adobe (Flash Development platform) and Microsoft (Silverlight) , are being poisoned as much as possible by the Apple hype engine.

In any case, we are all likely to want one, I just hope th contract I sign to get it, does not include small print that means Steve owns my Soul as well as my wallet.

Recently Philip Hodgetts remarked on how the future of digital media and advertising. http://www.philiphodgetts.com/2009/10/30/how-will-branded-media-replace-advertising/

I had visited this topic a few years ago in older posts.  Strangely enough looking back now, we do not seem any closer to many questions we need answered.  One of the big ones to me is:

Regional Price per item advertising can make up to 70% of the ads we see on TV. How does the new digital media future repace this?

Just to look at this issue.  New Digital Media advertising is very much based from a single producer making content for distribution all over the world.  This is a very cost effective model but cannot replace that 70% gap left behind in typical localised TV and radio.  You need more infrastructure (People on the ground in that local, reginal content distribution and creation with regional advertising combination etc.).  The price structure of new Media simply cannot support these old school ideas on advertising.

So where does this 70% go.  Google was tried hard to build a solution does not appear to be very sucessful “yet”.  The idea was to turn new media advertising into a Web advertising type model, and use the reginal website poster ads and how those engines work, into a infrastructure engin to replace the 70% of TV/Radio advertising model.

Unfortunatly, what you can build and how business works are not always the same.  And from what I see, the business of media buying, in which you have large advertising companies talking to huge media buyers and making a lot of this 70% of traditional advertising spend..  They want to keep it the same.  This new model cuts them out.

So where to now?

No idea really. (If I knew I wouldn;t be writing this would I).  I personally see the slow and eventual rise of networks like TWIT.TV and similar ones that build local advertising into local content.  They will slowly grow until they errode the traditional methods.

If you follow my blog, I have been a big believer in the Blu-Ray format. I have written many posts over the years to bust this myth that online will kill Blu-Ray.  At this stage I think I need to revisit this issue, especially as Philip Hodgetts received some very interesting comments from video equipment makers.  Quote from Philips Blog Post -What to use to archive non-tape media? – “on the Exhibit Floor (At DV  Expo) to find out what Panasonic, JVC, Sony and hard drive manufacturers recommended for long-term storage for non-tape media, and the answer surprised us both: Blu-ray.”

I am personally not at all surprised.  I have always held the line that Blu-Ray due to it being the best hi-density random access storage ( apart from Hard drives, which has many issues) is the only real path forward for our data storage needs.  This alone will pull it across the line enough to make it the defacto standard for what will replace DVD.  But likely one of the last for a long time.

See this link for graphs on DVD/Blu-Ray sales.. “High-Def digest“.  Blu-Ray is slowly growing, however, slower then anyone expected.  Even me.  But growth is growth.  Until Blu-Ray takes it’s place as the archival pinical of our future, to think Blu-Ray and to want Blu-Ray  is not likely to materialize.

Once we are all using Blu-Ray disks, we are likely to think Blu-Ray when we come to purchase films or replace DVD players.  The Archival revolution will establish this eventually.

However, lets look at some of the reasons why this is inevitable.

1. Philip has unearthed the fact that all the new Video makers, producing more data then ever before, are starting to become uneasy about spinning disk storage for long term archival.  Do you really want to maintain a RAID system permanently for the relevance of the content?  This realization is only a drop in the ocean. (See following points)

2. Cloud storage is by no means a real solution.  Yes, it probably goes a long way to solving this, but do you really expect to take 1TB of video, pictures, you may need later, say  20-40 years form now.  Dump it on a cloud, and upkeep it?  How about 10 Blu-Ray disks. put it in a box, through it under our bed, forget about it for the next 20 years..  Who do you think will sleep easier?

3.  I mentioned a drop in the ocean, now lets look at Noah’s flood coming in the next 10 years..

When I was young I was watching the news about a house on fire..  An old lady ran back into the burning house to save.. get this..  out of all the things.. A picture Album of her memories and family.  That was the most important thing in the house to her.  As a kid, I expected her to get her TV, Bike or favorite Mixed tape…  But now at 40 I can understand and relate to this behavior.

These days with digital Cameras the norm, everybody is storing their prized memories on DVD’s, portable Hard Drives or thumb drives.  How long until these devices start failing?  When will this generation, storing these priceless memories on inappropriate devices, realise they need to take steps to protect it?  Well, its probably starting to take traction now..  And when it does, Blu-Ray will thrive, and any industry connected to it will likely come along for the ride.

Many, evangelists do say Cloud Storage will fix this.  I’m sorry but this simply does not ring true to me.  Yes, it will probably answer this problem, however, it will never answer the problem of trust and paranoia. My most important pictures. Why would I even bother trusting some unknown corporate entity that 1.could loose my data or 2. go out of business.  Just dump it on a storage device that will last for a LONG time, and put it under my mattress.  Nothing makes you sleep sounder.

The only real issue here is that a newer, even better data storage technology will show up.  This was more likely to destroy Blu-Ray as a successful product then anything else.  Fortunately for Blu-Ray, nothing that mature seems to close.  Blu-Ray has the floor for quite some time.

Today the Google I had come to know changed..

The “Do no Evil” slogan crumbles as Google blatantly berried a great Web idea only to bring out their own version of it.

Recently Google launched Google Sidewiki.  An idea in that anyone can comment on a web page outside the control of the website itself.  This is a firefox (and Internet explorer) plugin.

Back in February (7 months ago)  some friends of mind (www.sharpsushi.com) launched FeedBack Loop (www.feedbackloop.com.au).  Strangely enough “Google SideWiki”  is exactly the same idea and implementation.

When they launched feedback loop, the FireFox plugin went into what is called “Experimental” plugins.  That’s OK, as it is what all plugins have to go through.   However, today, the plugin is no longer even listed on the FireFox extension site.  It had been removed.

Obviously Google has added its “Back End Magic” to some of the features it has, but still.  This is obviously not an original idea and has been copied from feedbackloop.com.au

This is an example of a big company taking advantage of its position.  A every day occurrence in reality.  However, Google is not a typical company.  Any company that dominates an industry needs to be held accountable to much higher values.

Is the weight of Google dominance and power starting to escape from the clenched fist that holds it to the slogan “Do No EVIL”?