Comments on: Predictions for digital media for 2008

By: Dimitrios Matsoulis

Dimitrios Matsoulis — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 14:11:51 +0000

I agree with your point of view and indeed 2008 is going to be very exciting. I have expressed my opinion on this here:
http://electronrun.wordpress.com/2007/12/27/how-i-would-like-to-watch-my-internet-tv/
It is true that especially in the US we see the emergence of several cable and IP platforms and it is certain that most of them will not make it in the longer term. Google’s open platform would be great, I want to wait and see how Android will turn out in its initial mobile form. Overall, great article.

By: JamieG

JamieG — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 10:48:08 +0000

joe: I expect this is a form of self promotion. Those behind this proposel evidently have no idea about the industry that are trying to get into.

Firstly, any TV interaction we develop for the future has to be based around standards. And if you can get that far your still got a very long way to go.

Have a look at OpenTV/MHP and why it has failed.

And it was SMPTE supported etc.

I personally do not expect this kind of interactive TV people invisage. I have worked in production for a long time. It’s expensive, and how can we afford implementing another very expensive production layer on a process that is getting fragmented as we speek. Lowering the budgets we have to spend on these production. And you want to spend another 30-50% of the production costs on interactivety that a fraction of the viewers may use. On a non-standard viewing system that looks expensive to install on a TV.

Its dead before it starts.

James

By: JamieG

JamieG — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 10:39:23 +0000

Ray: Thanks for pointing reeltime out. This is the type of platforms I have expected. It is DRM based with a torrent type distribution model. I have seen a few others like this.

I do think this is where the distribution companies want to go, however, I do not feel this is the future of distribution.

The combination of a DRM system with a Torrent type distribution is great, however, these are both proprietory systems. This is where it will fail.

Firstly DRM is undesirable, and secondly, why go with a proprietory one when I can purchase Adobe’s new FMS-3 (Flash Media Server with H.264 and HD support) for $1200 which comes with DRM.

Secondly. P2P technology will become just another FTP (File transfer Protocal) type implementation. FTP was first, HTTP was second, and Torrent is likely to be third. And likely to be built into browsers or the operating systems of the future. Any company expecting to become a powerhouse in this area is crazy. Its like trying to own the HTTP protocol.

As such, companies setup on this model are bound to fail. It really comes down to being an agrigator or marketing company. What the distribution companies should aim for.

Distribution of video on the web will follow the path of non-proprietory protocols on the top of applications the producer can, if he desires, implement himself. For example, an open torrent protocol on top of a simple website and if DRM is required, FMS3 is a good option doing progressive download with AES encription. (Well it should do this accoring to what Adobe techs are telling me.)

Any technology that forces consumers to use any proprietory software, in my opinion, has failed before it has started.

James

By: joe

joe — Sun, 06 Jan 2008 11:40:16 +0000

What everyone involved in online video and yes VCs should know is contained in a demo video at http://vator.tv/pitch/download_file/downloadzip. It is critical to know where things are going and the writers strike is nothing compared to this, it’s a real eye opener.

By: roy

roy — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 13:36:26 +0000

i agree that long form will take center stage this year. been watching Reeltime for high quality streaming http://www.reeltime.com/ which has some interesting niche content and is about to load up and perhaps partner with some of the big studios. think this little seattle startup has some reel potential.

By: JamieG

JamieG — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 02:45:16 +0000

Thanks Philip,
I highly value your opinion as your right in the thick of it in L.A.
I am in Melbourne Australia.
I may read and listen to all the chatter coming out of your region plus get my hands dirty by playing with API’s and other low level Internet technologies that are likely to make up this future. I am still on the other side of the world and have to, as my blog says, analyse all this info and come up with likely outcomes.

But yes H.264 is “THE CODEC” of the future. But I predicted that last Christmas and was actively lobbying on Adobe’s blogs and there Flashplayer front men.

It’s more about how the dominos appear to be lining up are we are near ready to push the first one over and let the show begin.

James

By: Philip Hodgetts

Philip Hodgetts — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 02:09:14 +0000

Good summary of the likely trends James. Predicting is hard, particularly about the future. All I can add is “H.264 over all” into Flash/Adobe Media Player for web browser and online viewing and into iTunes (or Miro) for iPod, Apple TV viewing.

It’ll be an interesting year, particularly in my small part of the Internet. My life gets interesting on (current schedule) Jan 22nd (in the US).

Cheers

Philip

By: Online Music » Predictions for digital media for 2008

Online Music » Predictions for digital media for 2008 — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 23:22:31 +0000

[...] post by JamieG Analysis and software by Elliott Back This entry is filed under Online Music. You can follow any responses [...]

By: IPhone » Predictions for digital media for 2008

IPhone » Predictions for digital media for 2008 — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 23:14:19 +0000

[...] Here’s another interesting post I read today by JamieG Analysis [...]