JamieG Analysis

I have been watching the blogisphere lately and am amazed no one is joining the dots in regards to some of the biggest stores of late. Strangely enough, to me they are all about the same issue. Some stories are…

Is Windows Getting Morbidly Obese?

Gartner Says Vista Will Collapse. And That’s Why The Yahoo Deal Must Happen

Apple’s OS Edge Is a Threat to Microsoft

Gartner Warns Of Windows Collapse, Says Change Needed

The Hype about Psystar Open Computer.

Silverlight Vs Flash

Is the asus eepc a good laptop to buy?

The Linux Desktop Myth

What all this comes down to is that the PC is becoming consumer electronics device. This is a huge pivotal point for the world. There will be a shift of power in some of the biggest companies in the world.

To date I have not seen any real articles that cover this issue. So here I go. I’ll try to make it short and to the point.

Lets start with Gartners warning for Microsoft. Quite a few years ago I beleived that Linux would eventually topple Miscoroft. Over the years I have learn that it takes more then better software to make a difference in the world. Support, governance and deals done over an expensive dinner are more likely to shape our world. Controlling our devices and by that, us the consumers, is seen as the globalisation stategy of choice. However, something has gone wrong.

The massive power of these behemoth companies has started to develop cracks. Smaller electronic consumer makers are realising they can make computer products that answer all the needs of a typical end user without the need for an expensive operating system (Windows) which needs the latest and most expensive CPU,s.

Linux as a Desktop OS that can grow as the internet develops may have failed, but as an embeded OS setup to surf the web, read email, facebook, VoIP etc. It is perfectly suited.

A typical consumer electronics device does not have an upgradable OS. It is a black box that does what it does in the way it was designed. Once the cevilised world realises it does not need the Microsoft’s, Apple etc of this world. Its going to be a different place. The growth in internet use will explode, but the growth in windows use will flatten or slightly decline. Will it be on a phone, will it be on an ulta portable laptop.. The point here is its not Microsoft, and it most likly free embeded OS like a derivative of linux for the ultra portable, or Google Android for the mobile. This, is some eyes, is a desaster for Microsoft.

But really, its not. It’s not going to stop Microsoft making billions. It will stop them making Billions of Billions What IS going to worry Microsoft is technologies like Flex/Flash. The underlying strength of Microsoft in business, where the major portion of there profit lies, is not that they make operating systems for companies, but that they USE TO MAKE the best development platform for those companies to build their back end business transaction systems on. “USE TO MAKE”.

Silverlight has been developed by Microfot faster then any technology I have seen come out of Microsoft. This is because they are loosing developers in large numbers to competing development systems that are based on open source technologies. This is where the comment “Open Source is like a cancer” that Bill Gates mentioned a few years ago.

The reason for this is that these new development tools which in many ways are as good if not better then Microsoft when it comes to making web applications, the future of IT in businesses, is that, once a platform is built on an open technology, it is very easy to plug it into other open technologies but not Microsoft’s closed technologies.

The fact that Microsoft has developed Silverlight this fast and also made available documented API’s to, what was once considered the crown jewels of Microsoft, its internal IP and internal protocols, show how bad it is getting. The only reason Microsoft would do a complete about face on this is because they are loosing so many clients to open source. And once open source becomes a powerful force in a company, Microsoft’s dominant position to keep it all proprietary, and as such, lock up the customer, in effect is now forcing the customer to move completely away from Microsoft as they cannot easily plug these newly developed systems into Microsoft technologies. The shoe is on the other foot….

Now considering we are moving to a completely new way of doing business on our computers, the legacy requirements which are probably the biggest reason Vista is such a poor operating system, make Vista a dionsour in terms of the requirements for the future of computers in business. In my opinion, this is why Gartner has given Microsoft such a poor score card, and why Windows 7 is being rushed out the door at only 2 years away. Microsoft is waking up, but is to too late.

Microsoft may be a different company now and not the manopolistic, “Screw the consumer” type company as documented in all the Anti trust cases of past. This Ghost still haunts it, and the media like to point them out all the time. Microsoft is trying hard to look like a good guy. Unfortuanly I still see glimpses of Darth Vadors helmet in the windows of Redmond if I look hard enough..

Microsoft may be an unknown company to the young generation but this negative sentiment is, in my opinion, to strong and why Microsoft has done so poorly online. And, even if they take over Yahoo, this sentiment will spread and simply kill it too.

This leads me to Apple. A company that can do no wrong. A company that is for the people…

To be honest, I see large kinks in Apple too, but perception is real, and Apple is the master of Marketing and has done great things for the consumer.

If I was a major shareholder in Apple, I would be battleing big time to make OS-X cross platform. It is the newest major operating system in the world (It does have a few legacy issues but.). And its designed to run on Intel CPU’s. In real terms, OSX is simply NextSTEP, an old operating system Steve was behind, but died due to its $2000 price tag.) Of cource it was bastardised to make it the next release OS for OS9. NEXTStep was designed to run on ANY PC. As OSX could easily do. (And does like Linux does.)

If OSX was available on cheap white box computers, it would take 70% of the market over night. How could that possible be a bad thing for Apple? Apple hardware is great hardware, but if it is as good as it is, it could compete with everyone. The most profitable market in the world is selling BITS. Ie. Selling Software. It is basically free to duplicate and you have an ongoing relationship in which to can charge again and again. (Why do you thing Bill Gates was the richest man in the world for so long)

This is why the OpenComputer is such a BIG TOPIC on the blogisphere. It’s what everyone wants.

To bring OSX back into the topic of PCs as consumer electronics, the Apple OS, out of all proprietory OS’s is the BEST os to go embeded for consumer electronic devices. The Iphone is an example of this. And its a PHONE!!!! Not a inexpensive but for more powerful PC like a Asus EEPC.

To be honest, Apple are on top of these issues as the design of the MacBook AIR is very much designed along the lines of a consumer electronics PC, its just 5x to expensive. But its a sign that Apple know where the market is heading.

This is where Linux now has a real opportunity to become a real OS used by billons of people surfing the web. In real terms, embeded linux is the world leader. You don’t hear much about WindowsCE any more. Everyone is using Linux. It is far supiriour in every respect to WindowsCE, and WindowsEmbeded.

If the world does realise it only needs consumer electronic devices which can surf the web, facebook, email etc. Why spend all this extra money for an OS from Microsoft. Still, Microsoft have relaised this and Windows XP has been turned into the cheap alternative to Linux. Microsoft are probably selling it for next to nothing, but it keeps the end users using Microsoft products like Office. And keeps them using IE, which points the user as Microsoft web pages. This is the next big battle ground.

It is highly possible Windows XP may be a “free” operating system in the next few years.

To finish up, I simply want to say that the demise of Microsoft is greatly exagerated, however, the loss of industry dominance is not. I for one am glad to see this happening..

Google, however, is another matter…. A history of their actions will tell us where it’s heart lies, and if the usual nature of “Ultimate power corrupts ultimately.” Maybe they can buck the trend.