JamieG Analysis

Recently I have a discussion (Bordering on heated argument ) about Apple releasing OSX for NON-Mac hardware.  This all started when OpenComputer/OpenMac by PsyStar started selling a beige box running consumer PC hardware with OSX running on it.

This generated a louder than expected amount of noise/news in the Blogosphere.  So much noise, in fact, that there must be more to then than meets the eye.

After spending some time considering this, it occurred to me that this goes beyond what operating system may be better or worse.  The typical issues we judge an operating system on no longer effect how an operating system is sold.  Even if we overlook that Steve Jobs is never likely to let this happen, OSX going open is, at this stage, a very interesting idea.

Firstly let us look at traditional methods to divide, concur and dominate the WAR of the OS.  Ie, Microsoft.  Bill Gates may have had questionable business practices, however, he did completely dominate the computer industry and become the richest man in the world and stayed there for a considerable time.  The use of the Operating system was to his company, the golden handcuffs for the consumer.  Once you had them on your operating system you have great influence on what they run on that operating system.

But that was then and this is now.  If you look at future trends in operating systems, you will see they are going towards the “FireFox Mozilla” type business model.  Ie, give it away for free, then make money of the fact you can drive the users to services in which you get a kickback.  Ie, Firefox makes most of its money simply from Google adsense and the fact the default page and search bar is Google.  Add to this that the future for general applications liek Word, Excel, is as applications served up as services.  Ie, they are not connected to the OS so much anymore.

Firefox runs on the OS.  So whoever controls the OS is, if producing an equivalent product to firefox, likely to grab this market as the users upgrade.

That is where the new trend of the OLPC has grown.  Cheap Laptop computer which the industry expects to become consumer level Internet devices.  Ie, like purchasing a pay as you go Mobile phone but in this case a tool to access the internet.  There is a lot of sense to this as using the internet to do you banking and other tasks becomes the only method available.  The larger segment of the community is going to have to start getting online.  They will also want black box, (Cannot crash or get viruses etc.. )  Some expect the phone to take on this role, but phone can only do so much even if it is an iPhone  ;).

This is such a serious issue, Microsoft, with recent changes rumoured (from Windows Weekly with Paul Thurrott) to be happening to Genuine Advantage (Software that Microsoft uses to make sure your PC has a valid licensed) has basically made their OS FREE.  Yes, if you did not know, you may soon be able to install Vista or even XP-SP3 on a computer and it will operate fine.  It WILL ask you quite often to purchase the product.  However, you could, if you can put up with it, continue to use the OS for free.

This also explains why XP has gained a new life as Vista simply cannot run very well on these low end OLPC, while Linux can.

So, the trend for operating system into the future is FREE.  Vista may not be free yet, but even WINDOWS 7 has many rumours around it that it will be a very cheap, pay as you go operating system.  Ie, the OS, word, any app you run on it will be a SERVICE in the future.

If we consider this, what incentive does Apple have in releasing OSX to the general computer hardware?  Probably none.

Apple has set up a reputation of excellence.  In general, OSX is, by and far, the best operating system available.  It does have its issues. However, I would have to agree it is amazing.  For example, in doing my investigation of this topic, I installed the Hackentosh/OSX hack for any PC, onto my home computer.  A quad core Q6600.  And let me tell you, it generally runs up to twice as fast as Vista 64.  Has a cleaner interface.  Simply works far better than Vista in so many ways.  I am defiantly considering a Mac for the future.  Still it does not run so many open source tools I use frequently… (I will be testing running XP virtually next. )

It is a hard call.  Should apple open OSX to this new era of operating system?  Right now, I would say no.  If, however, OLPC or similar devices do start to take huge market share, Apple will need to release a similar device, and forgo the usual extremely high margins.  This will be a hard call for Apple.  The Mobile phone market was ripe for dominating.  The OLPC market will be very different.  Open source Linux, and Hardnosed Microsoft are already jostling for position here.  The Macbook AIR indicated Apple has its eye on this market, but unless they can bring out a competitive priced item, I do not see the Apple pulling this off.  They will have to go open platform if they plan to become more then an OS for the elite.

Finally, considering Steve Jobs, this is exactly where he wants to be.  And OS for the Elite, so don’t expect any movement here while he is on watch.

Note additional: ASUS will soon be selling all Motherboards with Embedded Linux in the BIOS. No HD no OS needed. Turn on and you have a OLPC type unit that you can use to access the Internet and all the Internat applications.