JamieG Analysis

On Jun 3, 2008, at 8:47 AM, James Gardiner wrote:

On Tue, Jun 3, 2008 at 9:07 AM, Philip Hodgetts <philip@intelligentassistance.com> wrote:

On Jun 2, 2008, at 3:32 PM, James Gardiner wrote:

Philip,
DVR from what I understand is inevitable.  A while back, I remember reading an extensive BLOG covering Apple applying for a number of patents describing DVR functionality.

What bet, with what deadline, will you take? I’m betting Apple never produce an Apple TV (or decendent) with DVR functionality. Apple apply for a lot of patents they never put in products.  How does adding a DVR help Apple sell something else?  The iPod is a gateway device for music sales; the Apple TV is a gateway for film and video rentals and sales. A DVR does nothing for the rest of Apple’s business. It requires a tuner (which we don’t have btw, and with future all-IP networks won’t need either) and a television service. People are looking to dump their cable service, not just find another way to use it.

Well, since I’m avoiding writing HD Distribution…

Ok lets look at this..  Apple has, against its plans, introduced stand alone use of the AppleTV to try to turn it into a successful device.  Still traction is still far below what is needed.
The utopian idea that DVB-T will not be around in the future is also a silly idea as really, DVB-T is still the best way to get News and sports around in real time (Especially in full High Quality HD). Streaming over IP networks with all that traffic is not ideal, plus all the would has the equipment installed and working.  We are not going to ignore it.

Broadcast *may* be around in this country, but not necessarily. Unlike Australia 85% of households have cable/satellite for their primary (at least) television source. Overall, I do not expect that broadcast is going away. For sport it’s essential.  News, not so much, since 80% of any news broadcast is pre-recorded and could be distributed any way, any time without needing to be strung together in a news broadcast. Not being a sports watcher I have no need for over the air. I already get news from better sources.

I agree streaming (ie rtsp) is a losers game but something akin to a internet subscription that stores television content locally for when it can be watched makes more sense. It does not help those who just want to “veg out” to whatever is on. For that group regular television is probably going to remain the lowest common denominator option for  a long while.

So really, a digital STB in the AppleTV is inevitable in my opinion.  And as its a computer with a HD.  DVR would be idiotic to leave out.  Plus with analog turn off around the corner, everyone is wanting to purchase a Digital STB soon anyway.

We just totally disagree on this. It provides no benefit for Apple (beyond, maybe, a few Apple TV sales) and that doesn’t fit with any other strategic approach we’re seeing from Apple at the moment. Hardware is subservient to services except in the Mac product range (and with the release of me.com next week, that may change as well).  Apple gets no share of the cable or broadcaster’s advertising.

We should all have completely automated homes by now too if I was to fully believe that utopia.

Difference between a current reality for a few people and widespread adoption when it becomes simple and inexpensive enough. right now my home media system is no ‘mother’ friendly, but it will be.

In general, I think everyone in LA/Califonia are all wearing rosy coloured glasses.  It goes with the web2.0 hype bubble.  I also suspect you have been spending a lot of time with Apple lately. 

We do live a little closer to the heart of these things but remember I can’t get FIOS in Burbank. (Just 10 Mbit down, 1 Mbit up for $80 a month with unlimited bandwidth. I would hate to pay for that in Australia).

Finally, for it to become a successful item, it needs to be more then yet another SetTopBox and Remote control messing up my living room.

Yep, a single central server solves that problem.

Sorry Phil, no.  a single STB that does all you really want solves a lot of this too.  How hard is it for the general consumer to understand and run a server with STB compared to a STB?

How does the set top box feed television to my laptop (and simultaneously to Greg’s laptop).  We’re looking at future consumption patterns. All media is stored on the central server and we access it from whatever device we want to use. A set-top box is a fine backward-looking (to only consumption on the main TV) and doesn’t take into account the reality of multiple consumption of different media throughout the house.

Again, I find that over there, you guys like to take the extreme route.  BDisk is going to have a difficult time as the end user cannot really tell the difference.  I see the distributor pushing it hard due to the better copy protection in the long run.  They will make it survive.  And still, there will always be a want to TAKE IT WITH YOU.  It may not be as strong in the young generation, but the middle aged has a good 30 years left in em..

To take-it-with me I just sync my portable device to my server.  Even the most optimistic optical disc supporter sees Blu-ray as more valuable for storage than media per se. (the files stored may well be media, of course).

“LIKE THE ROKU” meaning, an open version of the roku that can point any any service.  From podcasts to free-to-air-internet channels.

Nice in theory. No-one’s offering it yet.  Plus, how exactly do I subscribe to an OTN channel feed (podcast) on the ROKU-like device with no text entry or browser?

I heard some one say the other day.  TV is and always has been free to watch.  (It is why we call it free to air TV) Why would that change.  We just get it a different way.  On the net.  Sure we have technical issues getting the advertising to work.  but that will be worked out..

Actually television costs the cable fee or satellite fee in this country. Such is the reality for 85% of the population. And only the first wave is free, later waves are subscription or ppv.

http://www.downloadablemedia.org/index.php/lessons-from-cable-tv-re-advertising

I suppose this is the biggest sticking point.   The over zealous business models being enforced on these services.  And really it is a hard call to say how that side will end up.  I like ot look at the general outlook based on long term technoloical truths.  Ie the producer to consumer model will reduce to direct. But I am not clear if that the best way forward either.  But at the end of the day however this technology gets implemented.  If based on any proprietory ones as Apple is trying to enforce on us.  Its only going to get messy and convoluted as it has been for the last 5-10 years.

Proprietary formats served Kodak well  As long as their are standards and there’s open participation I’m not totally opposed to them being proprietary. Kind of like what we’re doing with klickTab/Open TV Network. The sales part is proprietary, but everything else is (over time) going to be as open as it can be).

Steve wants there to be one box, that box is AppleTV with (profit making) services from Apple. If there aren’t add-on profit making services, they’ll drop the box rather than make it something backward looking like a DVR/Blu-ray player.

I disagree.  Why don;t they drop it now?  Why are they loosing money on renting day -in-date movie releases.  Apple may have the Music industry by the balls. but the Video industry is trying very hard not to get in the same position.  And the longer they can fend of Apple with crap like the roku, the more likely they will fragment the industry enough to stop apple from owning them.

They haven’t dropped it now because they see the value (longer term) of being the channel for all content through their store. Not saying I totally agree but just observing their model. Build demand for sales from the store, and as a node for the home (iTunes) server).

If the content owners fragment the industry, they destroy the industry. If there had to be different boxes (receivers) for the three major networks in the 40’s there would be no television industry.

I’m not saying that a box with Blu-ray playback and DVR that can act as a node on the home network as well as buy and rent movies directly, wouldn’t be killer.  I just do not believe that Apple will be the ones to do it.

And really, if we go to the technological truth of all this and producer to consumer models do materialise..  It is not going to be Apple Itunes that is the marketing force and ticket clipper.  Its sites like Facebook and other social networking sites that will do that.  Apple is terrible at that.

True.  It’s one reason why we want klickTab content to be as widely accessible through web services (in development btw) and affiliates.  Individuals can curate the content into a social media context and earn commission (affiliate fees) on the sales they drive.

OK, let’s say 2 years (End of June, 2010) and the bet that there will be no DVR in an Apple TV nor Blu-ray player in an Apple TV (or anything with the Apple TV branding). The bet is $100 against. Are you on?

Forget Blu-ray, I agree thats a very long shot, but Digital tuner and DVR.  Your on!!

OK. I bet that Apple will NOT have a digital tuner and/or DVR within their Apple TV (or direct replacement) before June 30, 2010. An announced but not shipping product, would qualify as a win for you.

Even a dictator has to face reality eventually.

Not Mr Jobs  He’s not convinced he’s always right, he *knows* he’s always right.

Well I’m always right in my little world too…  

Maybe I do over look how aogent Steve is.  But at the same time, I think, Steve, keeping his massiah status has to tread very cearfully.  He has to wall the people up while at the same time, make them happy and excited to be walled up.

Most people don’t much care about the “walled up” aspect. They’re already “walled up” by what channels their cable (or satellite) provider will offer. Not all channels are offered to everyone. (As Al Gore has found with Current TV, which is carried by a small percentage of cable systems).

I have, what I think, is a reasonble good idea about what Steve is about.  I just don’t think he is going to get away with it for video.

It will be interesting to see how the move into book readers go. (In my opinion, the issue between Apple and Adobe and no flash on the iPhone…  its about the small print which as ACROBAT in is some place.)

Acrobat now carries flash, as I’m sure you know. (Of course, it’s been able to embed QT for about 8 years).

Blu Ray is an each way bet I agree.  And as Apple has done very little for Blu-Ray movie playback integration, it pushes it into the very unlikely catagory.

I’m even doubtful about Blu-ray support in DVD Studio Pro, something that I believe will hurt them in the production space. But ideology drives Apple, not market opportunity. Dropping floppies, USB only etc (at a time when these were unpopular choices.)

Still, I see blu-ray going more afforable sooner then later now as, they may have won the format war, but lost the consumer need.  Its just not that better then a good DVD and we are heading into questionable economic times. (Ie, I cannot really tell the difference and I am short of money = Blu-Ray slump)

Agreed

Still, by nature, people will want to upgrade.  Giving the public a device that does any and all now and possible future needs for the living room TV makes it a far easier sell once they do have the money.  And by that time Blue-Ray drives may be at that price point where it silly not to include it. (2 years)

People will upgrade for improvements in convenience. (CD over LP was about random access and remote control, not quality, for most; MP3 over SACD et al). Mostly because, unlike those of us in the industry, most people don’t see quality as being as important as we do. Go into the average Joe’s lounge room and see how the TV is set up. Odds are it’s misaligned (if CRT), oversaturated and probably with a color shift, and “that’s the way we like it!”.

As much as I hate to say it, quality is a niche market. Probably an important niche market, but keep in mind that more than 50% of those who have HD set do not have an HD service of any kind and still “love the HD”. (Digital 16:9 from a DVD is clearly better than NTSC in these tests, but the incremental improvement for HD is missed by more than 80% of the audience in blind viewings.

P.S. may post this consersation to the blog.  It has some interesting arguments in it..

Sure. Can’t think why not.

Philip

Philip Hodgetts

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