JamieG Analysis

There has been much discussion over the motives behind Steve Jobs not allowing Abode Flash player on the iPhone.  In general, as a developer, there is no reason why flash lite could not work on the iPhone. Full version of flash, yes that is questionable, but not out of the question either.  The real reason, as mentioned in the blogosphere is speculated as follows.

1. Flash is a back door to iPhone Applications in which Apple will not get the 30% cut in sales.

2. Apple wants to break the strangle hold Adobe Flash video has on the web.

Item 1 is a no brainer.  The excuses quoted by Apple for no flash support are thin, in my opinion, and only really advantage them by cutting out Adobe.

Item 2 is a little more pervasive.  Adobe has recently released DRM products giving it similar capabilities as iTunes.  Both companies are head to head in becoming a key player in online digital video. Lets look into it deeper.

The idea behind iTunes is well known.  A Portal into all your digital media needs.  Right now it dominates the Music side.  But video wise, its not doing so well but arguably is the leader.

What Apple needs is to offer the digital video distribution market a full package. For example.  Video from the iTunes store is on your mobile device (iPod), your TV (AppleTV) and the Web (Quicktime X).

This would then allow them to sell video content that will play everywhere you want it on Apple technology.  This then opens the doorway to the DRM utopia.  Buy once, play everywhere…  But with DRM working everywhere too.

As you can imagine, this is “A dream come true” of the current incumbent distribution companies trying to stay relevant with current business modems in a changing world.  Apple would be in a position to offer them the closest thing to it.  iTunes would truly become the “One Ring” of the online digital video industry. (Note: there are issues with this I will cover later)

They have the first two, and are working on the last.  Topple Adobe Flash as the media player of choice on the Internet and the have checkmate.

Quicktime X is on its way. Here it comes, the Adobe Flash killer (for video).  Apple will use the iTunes user base to get it out fast. (Same as the safari web browser which downloaded to all iTunes users be default).

Quicktime X is unlikely to be a Full flash competitor (Animation, vector graphics etc.)  It will simply answer the video side of the equation with an implementation that works with Javascript.  For example, integrates into the AJAXian side of the Internet.

Quicktime X may not have all the visual interactivity that Flash offers, but this is not needed. AJAX interfaces can look nice and be very effective.  It also has some tricks up its sleeve.

Final Cut Studio, the tool of choice for making online video is an Apple tool and very much offers you easy creation of content for all your online digital needs.  Of course, these tools will completely integrate into the Quicktime X story pushing you to use it.

Before I go further, let me state that I am not a big supporter of DRM.  Tho I do believe that DRM used in the right way can improve your return of investment.  DRM, in general, however has proven itself to be ineffective, a waist of money to the producer and a poor experience to the consumer. See the history of Music and DRM.  Video is a different story, and I do believe DRM may be able to be used as was tear based distribution models (Cinema, Cable, Rental Store, DVD).

Let me also state that the issue here is not that DRM will or will not be used in the future.  The real issue it to convince the incumbent players to embrace the future.  Many of us believe that DRM will fail no mater what.  It is the perception that DRM will save them that lets them move forward.  And this is the game Apple is playing.

As you can see, the picture I have painted is a master peace and what you would come to expect from Steve Jobs.  Now to the fly in the soup.

Open Source Software (OSS).

Recently FireFox beta 3.1 released a version of the browser with the HTML 5 video support.  This version now also incorporates the open source video codecs Theora for Video and ogg vorbis for audio.  See this. What we have here is a technology that is likely what Quicktime X is going to be.  Its all open source supported and free to use.

Apple, if it plans to become a Flash video killer, needs as little dilution of the market as posible.  These types of developments are not likely to stop Apple, but are likely to muddy the water and slow it down.

Another example of this muddy water is this.

"Nokia has filed a submission with the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C)
objecting to the use of Ogg Theora as the baseline video standard for
the Web. Ogg is an open encoding scheme (On2, the company that
developed it, gave it and a free, perpetual unlimited license to its
patents to the nonprofit Xiph foundation), but Nokia called it
"proprietary" and argued for the inclusion of standards that can be
used in conjunction with DRM, because "from our viewpoint, any
DRM-incompatible video related mechanism is a non-starter with the content industry (Hollywood). There
is in our opinion no need to make DRM support mandatory, though." .....

Here is an example of how muddy the waters are likely to get.

Conclusion

Apple has a good plan here.  Exactly how relevant it will be into the future is unknown.  But moving the industry into the future of digital media, under any reasoning is fine by me. Apple may become the “One Ring” of digital media for a time.  But due to the technologies available, it is likely to fragment and become competitive over time.