Apple, Microsoft, LINUX, the show down is coming. An OS war to make all past OS wars look like a snow ball fight, is coming. When will it hit… Look for the sign of the “7″.
Seriously, there has never been a more interesting time for operating systems. They are mature. They make your breakfast in the morning. And they a re a religion.
A quick overview:
- Microsoft is on the ropes, in perception but not in truth, and is looking to shake the world up with windows 7.
- Apple has a red hot OS that is clearly better then anything else out there. And its numbers are growing as a result.
- Linux is a invincible glacier that slowly inches forward every year and is generally viewed as unstoppable.
Realistically, it is not that simple. Apple fanboys would believe that they are causing Microsoft a lot of damage, but really Apple is not the problem. Bill got it right a long time back. It is open source that is Microsoft’s biggest worry.
Netbooks are the hottest items this Christmas. For what a Netbook needs to do, Linux is all you need, and also runs better on less expensive hardware then Windows. The more Linux becomes an every day OS, the more end users will adopt it in all aspects. This is the problem, as this brings Linux closer to an ignition point of acceptance as an OS for business.
Apple does not focus on business. Yes Apple is making in roads into general consumer computers, however, businesses do not, and cannot consider Apple OSX as its not designed to work, as windows does, in large businesses.
The real issue here is that operating systems are becoming commodity items. given away for nothing with the computer. (Ie Linux and a netbook). How is Microsoft going to compete. VISTA is a complete dog in which you need a space shuttle to actually run well.
What is Microsoft to do???
Answer: cut the fat of VISTA as fast as possible. MAKE it run on netbooks well. “AND GIVE IT AWAY FOR FREE”. Well, not completely free. Windows 7 core, as it is currently known, is likely to be as capable as a netbook needs. Surf Web, Read Email, VoIP. But anything more.. is a simply online, enter credit card number and pay for what you want. DirectX for games. Office tools. etc.
Microsoft is looking to make Windows 7 a storm breaker to the LINUX tidle wave.
This also makes a lot of sense as Microsoft is making a massive shift in business model as I discussed in “Microsoft turing to the future of computing at PDC with Azure“. Here Microsoft is focusing on services. Software may be free in the future, but you will always need services to support it.
This is an impressive plan, in my opinion. LINUX will slowly keep moving forward as predictably as a glacier will. Apple, on the other hand, is the more interesting opponent.
In my blog, I have written about OSX and how Apple needs to compete by letting it free of the Apple hardware dongle. Considering these developments, there is more and more chatter that Snow Leopard is exactly that. Not just optimization, but readying the OS for general hardware support.
If I was Steve, I would do this simply to keep my options open, but really, Apple has done well forming the perception (and fact) that OSX is a better OS for many people. And that this better software comes with a price. But will this stand up in the face of “free”?
Like all wars, at the beginning, you have no idea who will win.
6 responses so far ↓
1 Philip Hodgetts // Dec 5, 2008 at 9:53 am
I was looking at the OS share stats – Windows 89.69; OS X 8.82 (actually it says “Mac” – I wonder if there are many OS 9 users other than those with Avid Meridiens?) and Linux .82%
It’s a nice neat 90, 9, .9 progression (rounding errors allowing) – each one is 1/10th the popularity of the next largest market share. Does it mean anything? If I thought it did, I’d probably write a best selling book on the progression
Apple are never going to release OS X on other than Apple hardware. Get used to the idea, regardless of what you think
(Gratuitous reminder of my position.)
Philip
2 JamieG // Dec 6, 2008 at 9:48 am
Hello Philip,
You black and white opinion on OSX “not” going open is well burnt into my brain. Still, I also know you are a big digital media follower and that the topic of “FREE” is something you would have put considerable thought into. As a digital media expert and a “Big Brain for Hire”, it is your job after all.
“FREE”, as you now, tends to turn industries on their head. Music industry is a good example of that.
“FREE” operating systems are also likely to change the landscape for Operating systems (OS). As such, the black and white view of OSX not ever going down a similar route. You simply do not have that luxury anymore.
James
3 Philip // Dec 7, 2008 at 5:26 pm
As a Mac user I would hate to see the OS Bloated by having to cover a range of hardware options.
The “no driver” ease of use is what makes the Mac hardware-OS integration is where the strength is.
I can see no value to current users at all as I doubt many would buy a Dell to run Final Cut Pro in a production environment.
What is the revenue model for an Open source Microsoft OS anyway?
4 JamieG // Dec 7, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Philip G,
Its not about revenue, its about stopping Linux getting a foot hold.
I develop media tools for eCinema. We use Windows predominately. We get asked why we do not develop for Linux. Well we could, however, Windows drivers are better. The media tools that come with it are better and it is support by many different companies.
If Linux got more traction, and these companies started treating it seriously, developing these tools with proper Linux supported. Windows would loose a lot of sales to Linux.
Once this happens.. its all over for Windows in a lot of areas.
So free Windows is simply a way to keep Linux from reaching critical mass.
Its not about building new revenue, its about keeping current revenue.
James
5 Philip // Dec 7, 2008 at 6:40 pm
If they get to the point where they have to give away Windows to compete with Linux they already lost.
6 JamieG // Dec 13, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Have they Philip? Why? Windows XP, is actually not a half bad OS. If Windows 7 does come back into line with the XP experience and is mostly free.
Where is Linux going to win??
In my opinion, this simply makes Windows viable in a Free OS wold that Linux will bring us.
Linux will not be perfect for everyone, but it is hard to beat “free”. Microsoft is simply playing on the same play field now, offering a slightly different product that may be more appearling to some. 50% for example.
Still, the control of having the OS that many people live on has its advantages.
Look at Google model. Exactly this. Android is free.. Android is likely to evolve into a FREE OS what runs on a desktop, laptop, and gives you all the free Google tools.. Plus all the google Ads.
James
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