JamieG Analysis

If you follow my blog, I have been a big believer in the Blu-Ray format. I have written many posts over the years to bust this myth that online will kill Blu-Ray.  At this stage I think I need to revisit this issue, especially as Philip Hodgetts received some very interesting comments from video equipment makers.  Quote from Philips Blog Post -What to use to archive non-tape media? – “on the Exhibit Floor (At DV  Expo) to find out what Panasonic, JVC, Sony and hard drive manufacturers recommended for long-term storage for non-tape media, and the answer surprised us both: Blu-ray.”

I am personally not at all surprised.  I have always held the line that Blu-Ray due to it being the best hi-density random access storage ( apart from Hard drives, which has many issues) is the only real path forward for our data storage needs.  This alone will pull it across the line enough to make it the defacto standard for what will replace DVD.  But likely one of the last for a long time.

See this link for graphs on DVD/Blu-Ray sales.. “High-Def digest“.  Blu-Ray is slowly growing, however, slower then anyone expected.  Even me.  But growth is growth.  Until Blu-Ray takes it’s place as the archival pinical of our future, to think Blu-Ray and to want Blu-Ray  is not likely to materialize.

Once we are all using Blu-Ray disks, we are likely to think Blu-Ray when we come to purchase films or replace DVD players.  The Archival revolution will establish this eventually.

However, lets look at some of the reasons why this is inevitable.

1. Philip has unearthed the fact that all the new Video makers, producing more data then ever before, are starting to become uneasy about spinning disk storage for long term archival.  Do you really want to maintain a RAID system permanently for the relevance of the content?  This realization is only a drop in the ocean. (See following points)

2. Cloud storage is by no means a real solution.  Yes, it probably goes a long way to solving this, but do you really expect to take 1TB of video, pictures, you may need later, say  20-40 years form now.  Dump it on a cloud, and upkeep it?  How about 10 Blu-Ray disks. put it in a box, through it under our bed, forget about it for the next 20 years..  Who do you think will sleep easier?

3.  I mentioned a drop in the ocean, now lets look at Noah’s flood coming in the next 10 years..

When I was young I was watching the news about a house on fire..  An old lady ran back into the burning house to save.. get this..  out of all the things.. A picture Album of her memories and family.  That was the most important thing in the house to her.  As a kid, I expected her to get her TV, Bike or favorite Mixed tape…  But now at 40 I can understand and relate to this behavior.

These days with digital Cameras the norm, everybody is storing their prized memories on DVD’s, portable Hard Drives or thumb drives.  How long until these devices start failing?  When will this generation, storing these priceless memories on inappropriate devices, realise they need to take steps to protect it?  Well, its probably starting to take traction now..  And when it does, Blu-Ray will thrive, and any industry connected to it will likely come along for the ride.

Many, evangelists do say Cloud Storage will fix this.  I’m sorry but this simply does not ring true to me.  Yes, it will probably answer this problem, however, it will never answer the problem of trust and paranoia. My most important pictures. Why would I even bother trusting some unknown corporate entity that 1.could loose my data or 2. go out of business.  Just dump it on a storage device that will last for a LONG time, and put it under my mattress.  Nothing makes you sleep sounder.

The only real issue here is that a newer, even better data storage technology will show up.  This was more likely to destroy Blu-Ray as a successful product then anything else.  Fortunately for Blu-Ray, nothing that mature seems to close.  Blu-Ray has the floor for quite some time.