JamieG Analysis

The iTablet hype is reaching ear-bleeding level.  The speculation goes from one extreme to the other.  Personally I am getting tired of it, so in this blog post, lets go over the obvious moves Apple will make when it is finally released.

1. The hardware spec and prototype was most likely finished quite some time ago.  Obviously they have been refining it continuously as time permits.  However, it is not the hardware that dictates the iTable release.

2. Anyone pushing the “iTable is only rumor etc” is obviously just trying to generate clicks. (Total opposite to general opinion generates traffic) I don’t even look for these leaks but I have heard that it certainly exists.

3. The iTablet success is connected to content.  Apple will not release the iTablet until they have the content in place.  It is far more important then the product itself.  Why buy a TV if you have nothing to feed it, ie Movies/TV shows.  Remember the old days, the Radio makers MADE the Radio shows to drive demand.

4. Apple needs to get the formula right.  The iTablet success is based around replacing the hole left behind by news papers going away and everything going online.  This is all well and good, but the old timers, the general MASS MARKET, (As opposed to the very small and limited tech hype engine that is western US) will only adopt the product in mass if it is seen as a replacement for what they know and love now.  Ie picking up the news paper in the morning and reading it while you eat breakfast.  This is a key issue that combines the functionality of the iTablet and the media deals.  For the iTablet to be as successful as everyone is hoping it will be, it need to exist in its own right.  Not an iPhone replacement, not a Ultra light PC/MacPro replacement.  A product in that “it” is the best product for the purpose.

5. The magic  you get when this product come along, interactive magazines, video communication, (Twitter, facebook integration etc) is what  makes this product worth all the hype. It is what the excitement is really about. All that BLUE SKY..  the potential.

The more interesting aspect of all this is the wave of change in the printing industry this will bring.  Unlike Music in which Apple found itself in a very dominant position and sacrificed the artist for its dominance in portable music players, no other industry has been willing to let Apple do this again.  The AppleTV, for example, is been a failed project as the media providers are not willing to let Apple gain a postion of dominance.  They are making sure other companies and paths to market exist. As Apple has not seen a path to dominance, they have not spent much time on AppleTV.

So, how is Apple doing these deals with Print Media is the bigger question.  From what I hear, Apple are doing very reasonable deals.  I expect they understand they cannot get away with what they did with music.  Print media suppliers are not going to back themselves into corners like the Music industry did.  They are likely to make open ended deals in that other hardware makers will easily join in on. (For example, at half the cost of an iTablet) This means Apple is not as likely to be able to dominate the market with the iTablet.

However, I think Apple masterful plan as to use the “accidental” success of the App store with its lock in APPS (Ie not cross platform, only run on Apple) as a form of obtaining dominance.  Apple will be open with its media suppliers, but will lock in the users by locking them to APPLE only applications.

The iTablet will obviously have a App Store, and countless Apps will appear over night.  Users will find themselves investing another few hundread dollars in Apps before they know it.  If your iTablet breaks, or the battery dies (And most likely cannot be replaced) what are you going to buy, a new white box Tablet at 1/2 the cost and loose access to your APPS, or just get another iTablet?

This explains why the open and cross platform technology from Adobe (Flash Development platform) and Microsoft (Silverlight) , are being poisoned as much as possible by the Apple hype engine.

In any case, we are all likely to want one, I just hope th contract I sign to get it, does not include small print that means Steve owns my Soul as well as my wallet.